The gap between Russia's dreams and the adventures of fuel abroad


Moscow: Russian elites are considered to be the successors of the Soviet Union's royal glory. The problem is that they only have the resources of the second level power.

This fundamental struggle between aspirations and the media, and the way in which Russia sees itself and how it is perceived by others, in the international affairs of President Vladimir Putin, from the invasion of Ukraine to Syria's intervention, in the form of electoral intervention Gives shape. In the United States. Raids in Venezuela and Africa

Dmitry Trinin, who led a former Soviet nuclear negotiator Carmigai, said, "Russia is trying to consolidate its position by hitting its weight, acting in a way that people imagine that Russia's role More meaningful and serious. " Center in Moscow "More than its weight, translated into Russian, means playing for time. We keep on waiting, and as long as it is expected, it gives us strength."

Putin, a former KGB official, and other Russian leaders emerged from the time when the Kremlin ruled one of the world's two great powers and experienced the collapse of the Soviet Union as a personal tragedy. But Russia is still a nuclear power, a stable middle-income economy, which is almost like Canada or South Korea, with fewer limitations and some real colleagues. However, he is longing for recognition and continues Moscow's new attitude.

"This is a terrible inferiority complex of a teenager, who is taken into the adult football team. Sometimes it means that you are extremely difficult, and sometimes it means that you are very naïve, "said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Strategy and Technology Analysis, who is a group of experts from Moscow, who Advises the ministry.

An important reason for Russia's new activism in a distant land, from the Middle East to Africa and Latin America, is the desire to get a seat in the adult table by gathering the token of the conversation that the Kremlin is one day for Western concessions Can exchange In the form of central national interests, mainly Ukraine, Russian officials, and experts say. However, so far, Russia is not capable of charging.

"I think Putin wants to do business. He always indicates that he is ready to do business, "said Constantin Zatulin, a key member of the Russian Parliament of the ruling party." Personally, I thought we went to Syria to exchange it for Ukraine. But the West does not listen to it, does not want to hear it, and does not even accept that you have the right to raise the problem in such away. "

The economic power, of course, which makes a great power great, and partly compensates for the fundamental weakness of the country jointly, with the rapid decision making of Russia's formidable military, diplomatic and intelligence services.

"The economies do not fight the war and, by themselves, can not guarantee political interests. There are great economic powers in the world, which are geopolitical impotence like the European Union, "said Vasily Kasin, a military affairs expert at the Moscow Higher School of Economics.

When playing for time, the Russian leaders believe that the rise of China's favor for the crisis of the international liberal order and the interests of Moscow declares the inevitable decline of the Western alliance under the leadership of the United States. Along with this, they hope that the institutions disappear, which Moscow considers hostile, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. However, until now, these institutions have proved to be resistant. Therefore, Ukraine is the Western unit of economic sanctions imposed on Russia in response to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine and the destruction of Crimea.

In Eastern Ukraine, that partnership represented an exaggeration, which came from a misconception that the entire Ukrainian state would collapse easily, many agree today in the establishment of Russian foreign policy. But even though the West condemned Moscow's military invasion through the prism of the imperialist self-image, but it defended its influence area.

"Russia is the power of the status quo. But it is unable to maintain the status quo because the world moves forward and takes very little back to the legacy of the Soviet Union, so Russia has to resort to a spoiler as a result of this result. Russia can be amended in its own way, but it is not a revisionist in the objectives of its policy, "said Andrei Kortunov, director of Russia's International Council of Councils, which is a group of experts from Moscow who advises the government. For Russia, this work is not an extension but existence. "

In fact, the prevailing opinion in Moscow is that, although the relationship with the United States in the coming years is likely to be stressful, it is likely that the Kremlin will save from starting the bigger crises in the immediate future.

"We do not want any confrontation, we do not want to worsen the relationship, we believe that it is in the interest of both the countries that at least now what we have, is a very difficult situation and it is very dangerous in some aspects," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said

However, in spite of such calls for stabilizing relations with the West, in Moscow, there is disagreement over whether the relationship will worsen in the coming years.

Kortunov is one of the optimists. "The crisis with the West can not really be deep because all the climbing directions have almost ended," he said. He argued that putting Russia under the type of restrictions imposed on North Korea or Iran, or isolating it from the international financial system, would be very harmful to Western economies.

Some other prominent Russian foreign policy specialists do not pay attention to recent incidents between Russian and American ships and battles in the South China Sea, Black Sea, and the Baltic.

Trenin, in particular, is concerned that a complete evacuation of fighting in Ukraine can trigger a Russian military movement in Kyiv, which could inspire Western neighbors of Ukraine to war and ultimately lead to a global conflict can give.

"Relationships can get worse, and if relationships worsen further, then we should realize that we are leading the war, and probably nuclear," said Turin. "We used to keep each other in headlines during the Soviet era, but each side realized that the danger is real and in case of war, we all will die. Today, there is a dangerous feeling of security, and this is one factor that can cause a nuclear war on negligence. "