Coronavirus: For every three deaths due to COVID-19, the lockdown may have caused two more cases

Coronavirus: For every three deaths due to COVID-19, the lockdown may have caused two more cases

A report said that for every three coronavirus deaths, two more were due to the impact of the lockdown.

According to government analysts, the national lockdown may indirectly cause 16,000 deaths in two months.

The new report says the reluctance to attend A&E and difficulties obtaining medical assistance likely means that for every three deaths from the Corona virus itself, two more have occurred due to the wider impact of the lockdown.

The results provide a possible explanation for the prime minister's recent claim that yet another complete national lockdown would only be considered a "nuclear option."

Estimates, compiled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and analysts from several government departments, indicate that there were 38,500 excess deaths in England linked to COVID-19 between March and May 1.

However, the report concluded that 41% of those deaths were the result of loss of medical care rather than the virus itself.

Of the 16,000 deaths, the paper estimates 6,000 were the result of "a significant decrease in A&E attendance and emergency admission."

It states: "Some of these unmet needs may be due to patients' reluctance to seek medical attention or other changes in protocols."

The report says that another 10,000 additional deaths are likely to occur in care homes due to patients being discharged from hospitals, or unwilling to be hospitalized.

Although calculations found that perhaps 2,500 people were saved by people adopting healthy lifestyles during the lockdown, modeling suggests that there could be an additional 26,000 deaths by March 2021 as a result of ongoing restrictions on medical care.

Overall, the analysis estimates that there could be a total of 81,500 extra non-coronavirus deaths over the next 50 years as a result of longer waiting times for elective non-urgent care, as well as increased deprivation resulting from a deep recession.

The document was submitted to the government's Emergency Scientific Advisory Group (SAGE) last month, but was released only on Friday.

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